Darfur news.

Darfur .. Between the options of escalation and the prospects for peace!



Abdul Rahman Abu Ouf

May not have ripened the opportunity to the Government of Sudan to find a political settlement to the crisis raging in Darfur several years ago as now arrived, assassination of the leader of JEM, Khalil Ibrahim, and before the disappearance of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who was a common factor in all the crises that beset Sudan since the birth of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Sudan in 1984, the end of his support for the insurgency led by Ibrahim in May 2008 to topple the Bashir regime and the seizure of Khartoum, as well as Aspagh care of all the rebel movements in Darfur, as if he did not stop the secession of southern Sudan, and seeks to repeat the same scenario in the western region troubled.

Booster President

The absence of Gaddafi and Khalil Ibrahim from the scene provides a golden opportunity for the return of peace to the troubled region since almost a decade, especially since the Libyan regime, the former was keen on continuing turmoil in all corners of the Sudan, at that believes his dominance on the inside of Sudan, as that of the former regime did not leave opportunity to block all efforts to bring peace in the region - including the path of Doha after outrage to ignore the parties to the crisis to deal positively with all its initiatives for resolving the conflict in the region - except the oldest them, have resorted to providing a safe haven for the rebel leader after a narrow normalization of relations between Bashir and Idris Edibe down it.

There is no doubt that the impact of Abraham fighters JEM was great, as well as its ability to mobilize political and financial support of the movement was remarkable, and to work on the ground adopted the theses of a sudden the government in Khartoum, similar to what happened in an attempt to storm the capital for several years with the support of a logistics Qaddafi's regime deposed, the attempt, which was ready to be repeated during the recent period, to shuffle the cards, and strategic change in the cards, the capacity will not be able motion compensated during the next phase at least, especially from the point of securing the financing of regional and international agenda.

Ambitions Without Borders

Khalil, who had ambitions not only Darfur, but he sees himself eligible for the rule of the Sudan, you will find his movement for a long time itself unable to absorb the blow, unable to also provide funding to its conflict with Khartoum after the cessation of the Parties to the classical support them in Chad, Uganda, Central Africa and the fall the main sponsor in the West, was left there a supporting only the Government of Southern Sudan, which may find itself forced to abandon the movement in the event of a settlement with Khartoum on a number of files controversial, a matter that may force the movement to deal positively with the peace offers Almnhalh it, especially if Khartoum did well to deal with the developments on the ground.

Difficulties faced by the Justice and Equality will not stop at the scarcity of financial resources, but the liquidation of Abraham may pay the Sudanese government to step up and intensify its attacks on the strongholds of the Movement for Justice and Equality, which is no longer her backyard to move against Khartoum only one hand of Southern Sudan, and the exploitation of the confusion faced by After Abraham, where you will lose the movement took the initiative, and will the Sudanese government to stifle it militarily, through the intensification of the bombing and the targeting of its symbols and its blockade speech of peace, to force her to sign a Doha agreement, and neutralize the conflict, which Stdkhalh Khartoum with the forces of Abdel Wahid Mohammed Nur, who barricade themselves now in the mountains of Darfur, refusing to enter into a conflict with the Bashir government now until further notice.

Lead

However, it is important to note that the absence of Abraham from the scene opens the door to all options, there are those who think that justice and equality could be trying to regain the initiative, and work to contain the implications of the liquidation of Ibrahim, launched a heavy attack on government targets, and ignite unrest in the air in the region and the expansion of looting and terrorizing citizens, to compensate for the decline in Libyan support her, even though the leaks indicate that the movement can - and through the generous financial support received by the onset of the revolution the seventeenth of February in Libya - hold out for for quite some time, if we take into account the size of large amounts of money that presented to the leader of the Justice and Equality, to ensure the support of the Qadhafi regime in the battle against the rebels, and not to abandon its ailing at the time.

Pressure and the prosecution

However, the movement continues to approach the clash with the Sudanese regime may have adverse effects on justice and equality, Vakherthom may not give them the opportunity to regain the lead again, betting on the support of the countries of the dialogue that deals with the movement and its fighters currently paper burned, which could be paid to cooperation with Khartoum to hunt down and paralyze their leaders, especially as the movement was based on the Libyan regime Krih buried her supporters after the adjournment of it, and the closure of other fronts it, in light of the difficulty of betting on support from the Government of Sylvakir scarce in the south only.

Harm Zionist

Adjournment of supporters for justice and equality could not be positive in all cases; which may prompt the movement to search for a strategic ally compensated for the disaster that befell them after an absence of Gaddafi and Khalil Ibrahim, and may not find the traffic difficulty in finding this ally, especially with the harm the Jewish state in Sudan , and seeking to fragment, and not just only on the separation of the south, in light of rumors that its late leader had visited the Jewish state in 2009 passport Chadians, and got this trip on the logistical support values, and supplies military, helped him in intense conflict with Khartoum, which is something you might want Israel to continue, under the focus of the government of Benjamin Netanyahu to gain new ground in the African continent, Sudan, in particular, especially as it received the President of the Government of Southern Sudan Salva Kiir recently, while preparing Netanyahu to tour extensively in the neighboring countries of Sudan, to perpetuate the dominance of the Jewish state in the number of significant countries of the continent, the dominance of Sudan would be the first to pay the bill of security and stability.

If the option to escalate the tension in the Darfur region and improbable in light of harm Western Sudan, the peace remains an option also in the light of the identification of a successor to the leader of the Movement for Justice and Equality in the leadership of the movement, and is likely to be Jibril Ibrahim, a succession raises several questions, including: Do you will go the new leadership in the same path set by Ibrahim himself from work on the access to power in Khartoum? Or will this command to search for ways to reach a political settlement in Darfur? On the basis of any options tend leadership, the answer will determine the fate of the Darfur issue is a large, vague position on the fate of the events, especially as the forces Abdul Wahid is still able to cause a lot of inconvenience to the hose, especially if you put her hands in the hands of Khalifa Ibrahim to prevent the system Bashir to restore the floor in the entire territory Darfur.

Scattering papers

Is not a scenario of a consensus between the remnants of the rebel movement difficult, and a return to direct severe blows to sites the government of Sudan, the latter seems capable of scattering all the papers of rebellion, by adopting the language of speech balanced embrace peace as a strategic option in the region, through a national project integrated development, and ignores the other papers, Kal_husm military option to resolve the crisis but that it takes with this frequently abused of a new type with the crisis, far from the atmosphere of revenge and being deceived victory latter, especially as such an atmosphere could complicate the scene, and opens the door for the return of waterfalls blood.

The essential questions

So, it is important to note that the killing of Khalil does not mean certainly the end of his movement and the rebel movements in Darfur; but that this incident may be the beginning of increased tension in the region, especially if the government can not exploit well, and marketed that the end of Abraham is the end of each of the betting violence as an option to resolve the crisis, especially that JEM will find it very difficult to compensate for the sudden absence of its leader, the absence poses several questions, including: Is the Justice and Equality Movement and the opposition has a clear manifesto? Or just a militia belonging to Abraham collapse with his absence? Are they able to compensate for this absence through the second row? And how can withstand the wave of Khartoum have a stick and carrot, in the absence of Libyan support? Are they on a date with peace or on the threshold of a new chapter of the crisis? .. Answer these questions will determine the fate of the situation in the region.